2016 Grand Caravan SXT · VIN …GR354044 · ~129,006 mi · bought $15,000 @ 35,781 mi (2018) · utilitarian · cash · Jul 23, 2026
Michael ↔ Amberly by need; also Michael’s work-trip car. Context for household fleet cost — not the keep/sell decision.
| This-round spend | All-in $/mi so far | Forward* |
|---|---|---|
| +$2,000 | $0.26/mi | $0.04/mi |
| +$4,000 | $0.28/mi | $0.08/mi |
| +$6,000 | $0.30/mi | $0.12/mi |
| +$7,000 | $0.31/mi | $0.14/mi |
*Forward = incremental $/mi if that spend buys ~50k more miles. Still cheap vs a $26,000–$29,000 replacement.
| Vehicle | Purchase + maint | Insurance* | Fuel (est.) | Est. full | % of AAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caravan | $0.24/mi | $0.08/mi | $0.16/mi | $0.47/mi | 61% |
| Civic | $0.32/mi | $0.08/mi | $0.10/mi | $0.49/mi | 64% |
Household auto insurance ~$1,500/yr (similar to last year), allocated by annual miles (~11,653 van / ~8,029 Civic). Fuel at $3.15/gal and 20/32 mpg. AAA $0.77/mi is new vehicles @ 15k mi/yr including finance + depreciation on a ~$39k MSRP mix — your used, paid-cash fleet is structurally cheaper.
Don’t authorize struts until Advanced prices the multiple oil leaks (and Murillo’s radiator residue note).
Leak + Advanced suspension/tires/align under soft keep → keep. Features already match need; no upgrade pressure.
Past hard sell, or engine teardown / transmission → sell as-is. Then Sienna (prefer) or clean Odyssey, ≤70,000 mi, cash OTD $26,000–$29,000.
| Path | Quoted / est. | vs soft keep | vs private party | vs trade-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced — struts/shocks/brake fluid | $1,200 | 30% | 16% | 29% |
| Plaza — same + alignment promo | $2,462 | 62% | 34% | 60% |
| Advanced + 3 tires + align + wipers | $1,990 | 50% | 27% | 49% |
| Plaza + 3 tires + wipers | $3,122 | 78% | 43% | 77% |
Advanced road-ready (~$1,990) sits well under the raised soft keep. Skip Plaza if keeping. KBB SXT good: private $7,325 · trade-in $4,075.
| Van | Ask + ship | Est. AR OTD | Net after selling Caravan | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Odyssey EX-L · 46,102 mi | $30,990 + $690 | ~$33,769 | ~$29,269 | Only if kill switch / past hard sell |
| 2018 Sienna XLE · 44,043 mi | $32,990 + $490 | ~$35,699 | ~$31,199 | Best long-haul pick — overpriced unit |
Utilitarian need + cheap Caravan $/mi means these are not competing with a strut bill — only with a dead powertrain.
| Target | Sweet-spot ask | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 2018–20 Sienna LE/XLE | $24,000–$28,000 @ 50–70k | First choice for longevity |
| 2019–21 Odyssey EX/EX-L | $22,000–$27,000 @ 50–70k | Magic Slide + CarPlay; vet 9-speed |
| 2021+ Sienna hybrid | $30–36k @ ≤70k | Stretch for MPG + decade-plus horizon |
| Chrysler Voyager / Pacifica | ~$18–28k possible | Affordable — wrong for long haul |
Classic 50%-of-value rule assumed a van you’d replace for features or status. You won’t — this one’s already doing the job.
Soft keep $4,000 / hard $7,000 tracks “years of use left at still-cheap $/mi,” not half of KBB.
Caravan is already at the floor. Another $4,000–$6,000 into a running tool is usually better economics than ~$29,000+ net into a replacement that then depreciates hard.
Exception: if the leak says the powertrain’s done, don’t average down — sell and buy the Sienna band.